Author Topic: Lieutenant's Manual: Determining Points Value Alpha Test  (Read 1168 times)

First Sea Lord Randall Bills

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Re: Lieutenant's Manual: Determining Points Value Alpha Test
« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2010, 10:01:00 AM »
OK, I'll kick off the discussion.

After reading through the rules, one question immediately leaps to mind: What are the limits to the various values in the game?

For instance, we have a selection of weaponry available in the PDF's, but no comprehensive weapons list.  What are the ranges we should expect the points system to cover before it breaks down?  Similarly, what are the speed ranges?  Breach numbers?  Knowing what these values can be allows us to determine whether the point system holds proverbial water in the ranges it needs to, and lets us write off places it might go off the rails at the extremes of speed, distance, and armor.

The answer, of course, may be that they should work for all values, or that you're hoping our analysis will help set some bounds on the numerical properties of Leviathans, and that is perfectly acceptable, as well.

--Bronzite

First, thanks for diving right in to ask some great questions...it's this type of enthusiasm I was hoping to tap.

Second, yes, the hope is that the system is 'loose' enough that it'll work for anything we throw into the mix. Not it doesn't mean it 'will' work that way...but that's my hope.

As for future values, the only very solid numbers we have are gun values. Currently no gun has a smaller value than: 3 (DBlue) / 5 (DGreen); and no gun has a larger value than: 9 (DBlack) / 18 (DRed). As for Breach Numbers and Speed, there's no absolute values we've run into yet. While there are guidelines for construction ships, it does not contain absolutes, allowing us to adjust as necessary as we introduce a host of factions and new ships down the line.


Randall

First Sea Lord Randall Bills

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Re: Lieutenant's Manual: Determining Points Value Alpha Test
« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2010, 10:02:40 AM »
I'm not sure whether (or how) it can or should be represented in a points system, but I have noted in the past that there is a definite performance implication dependant upon whether the map is fixed or floating.

For example, in my local BT competition we used a small fixed map (time implications) which I abused horribly once by fielding 8 UrbanMechs.  Their appaling speed was entirely offset by the fact that the enemy had nowhere to run away to and my force was really punching above its weight (8 AC10s at 1 target is enough to make most things think again).

Should we try to test this in multiple situations or stick to one or the other?

Yes, that is a limitation problem and to get around that there's a "Rolling Maps" rule in the Captain's Manual. While I'm certainly not against you guys playtesting both to see if you can come up with a value that you can add for a fixed-map situation, I think it'll prove extremely difficult to quantify. But please, have at it if you wish. ;-)


Randall

blackbrunswicker

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Re: Lieutenant's Manual: Determining Points Value Alpha Test
« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2010, 06:18:58 PM »
I just finished with the French:

Pelletier - 69.1

Montpellier - 74.5

Aigle - 86.5

Ardent - 97.7

Pontbriand - 108

Philip II Augustus - 112.9

Bronzite

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Re: Lieutenant's Manual: Determining Points Value Alpha Test
« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2010, 09:42:59 PM »
First, thanks for diving right in to ask some great questions...it's this type of enthusiasm I was hoping to tap.

Second, yes, the hope is that the system is 'loose' enough that it'll work for anything we throw into the mix. Not it doesn't mean it 'will' work that way...but that's my hope.

As for future values, the only very solid numbers we have are gun values. Currently no gun has a smaller value than: 3 (DBlue) / 5 (DGreen); and no gun has a larger value than: 9 (DBlack) / 18 (DRed). As for Breach Numbers and Speed, there's no absolute values we've run into yet. While there are guidelines for construction ships, it does not contain absolutes, allowing us to adjust as necessary as we introduce a host of factions and new ships down the line.


Randall

Excellent information, thank you.  Actually, that information does provide some insight into the absolute values of breach numbers.  We know that there are some ships out there that field only Blue/Green guns, and only green crew, meaning that they throw at most 10 plus the target die.  Without the crew, they can throw at most a 6.

Let us postulate a tiny destroyer, HML Impotent.  She's equipped with 4 Blue/ 8 Green guns in all quarters, but no crew slots.  These are her relevant properties for this argument.  For the sake of said argument, let us say this gunboat has a point value of 400 or so.

Now let us posulate a enormous battleship, HML Invincible.  She takes a black die to her flanks when she's underway, and the lowest breach number on any of her slots (after armor bonuses) is 23.  Let us say this behemoth racks up 2,000 points.

Were they to fight each other, Impotent would obviously be doomed.  But what about if we brought a flock of destroyers?  5 DD's have the same point score as the 1 BB.  If we apply BattleTech-style force sizing rules, we might have to throw a few more DD's at the party, but what's a half-dozen hulls between friends?

It wouldn't matter.  If a million tiny destroyers bit into this juggernaut, they would not make so much as a scratch as long as Invincible remains underway.  They can throw a Blue (6), a Green (4), and a Black (12), best case scoring a 22 (roughly 3 times in 1,000 rolls), which still wouldn't penetrate the monster's hull anywhere.

It is possible the game doesn't allow for this possibility in the construction rules, but if it does, the point system utterly breaks at this stage.  Range games, speed, and floating maps don't matter.  Presuming that every ship must have at least 1 location die, the theoretical maximum minimum breach number a ship could have to render it immune to the Blue/Green cannons is only 15 (for a ships with a green die in the green arrow on each side.)  There are already ships in the game fielding 16 armor in select slots, and we've not seen the capital warships yet.

I greatly appreciate the all-or-nothing armor system for this game, both mechanically and from a naval history perspective, but for the point system we're analyzing it has grave implications.  Its worth noting that even without actual immunity, the probability of a hit can be reduce to almost inconsequential levels considerably more cheaply than the full invulernability numbers.

Thanks for reading all that.  Now a quick question on a flavor note:  Was the fact that the lowest grade of crew you can have on a ship is represented by a green die an intentional pun in the rules of the game?

blackbrunswicker

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Re: Lieutenant's Manual: Determining Points Value Alpha Test
« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2010, 11:04:59 PM »
From what I've seen, most point systems will break without some sort of force construction rules, barring extremely simple rulesets. You could use that scenario in any other game and get a similar situation. Take a Second World War naval game. If Yamato and Musashi are on one side, and the other side has nothing but carriers loaded with supermarine seafires, it doesn't matter how many fighters are given strafing orders, they're never going to sink thoe battleships. That doesn't mean seafires aren't 'worth their points'. They are if taken in reasonable numbers against enemy air. The same can be said for the destroyer in your example. It's still worth its points if used to screen your own battleship against enemy destroyers, or to flank enemy cruisers and attempt to take out their engines.

Basically what I'm saying is that point systems aren't ever going to be 100% accurate, but they can provide a reasonably good guideline to putting evenly matched forces on the table. This is especially true for new players who won't have a good estimation of each unit's worth the way a veteran player would.

Bronzite

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Re: Lieutenant's Manual: Determining Points Value Alpha Test
« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2010, 07:51:48 AM »
From what I've seen, most point systems will break without some sort of force construction rules, barring extremely simple rulesets. You could use that scenario in any other game and get a similar situation. Take a Second World War naval game. If Yamato and Musashi are on one side, and the other side has nothing but carriers loaded with supermarine seafires, it doesn't matter how many fighters are given strafing orders, they're never going to sink thoe battleships. That doesn't mean seafires aren't 'worth their points'. They are if taken in reasonable numbers against enemy air. The same can be said for the destroyer in your example. It's still worth its points if used to screen your own battleship against enemy destroyers, or to flank enemy cruisers and attempt to take out their engines.

Basically what I'm saying is that point systems aren't ever going to be 100% accurate, but they can provide a reasonably good guideline to putting evenly matched forces on the table. This is especially true for new players who won't have a good estimation of each unit's worth the way a veteran player would.

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to imply the exercise is not worthwhile, but evaluating the limits of the points systems is certainly within our charter here.  Technically speaking, the rules themeselves do break at a certain minimum breach number (presuming a crew slot can only have one die, and that double-red is the highest location damage a ship can take, that number is 45), but that value is ludicrously higher than anything else we've seen in the game so far.  My point wasn't that the game can be broken, but presuming that the construction rules provide some protection, we have some idea of what valid, or at least reasonable, values are for ships. 

I'll be the first to admit, most of my analysis of the point system to today has been mathematically-based.  Later today I really start with the proper play-testing to confirm some of my observations and predictions about how different vessels interact.  For instance, as I alluded to last time, the probability curves for small-gun ships like Ardent fighting high-armor ships like Evesham suggests that the armoured cruisers would have a greater advantage than their point value would suggest.  Right now I think much of the interesting testing revolves around these sorts of match-ups, but I look forward to seeing what focuses other people are taking as they play with the point system.

Bronzite

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Re: Lieutenant's Manual: Determining Points Value Alpha Test
« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2010, 12:24:29 AM »
OK, playtesting today revealed I was very wrong about the Evesham.  It was, however, useful in a different way.  The location die provide a negative armor affect on their sides that is very significant, and I believe under-represented in the points system.  Here's the argument:

Presume I have an armor location.  It provides my ship with 1 point for each point of breach number, plus any that come from armor slots.  That's dandy.  However, the location die reduce the breach numbers in that location.  A single green die means that, on average, an incoming shot gets 2.5 breach value just for being fired into that location.  That die is currently worth 2 points off of my point value, but it removes 6 breach numbers in the best case, 15 in the average case, and 24 in the worst case.  Averaging the effectiveness of these location die in eliminating the benefit of breach numbers,   I would suggest the location die values are revised to:

Green: 15
Blue: 21
Yellow: 27
Red: 33
Black: 39